2 Week Playoff Scenarios 2012

By Michael Gertz
Saturday, December 22, 2012

With 2 weeks left, most races besides the NFC wild cards are rather simple. Here, we present all possible scenarios for the rest of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. For wild card tiebreakers, ties are first broken within each division and then between different divisions. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and playoff advancement odds, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Houston Texans (12-2) -- 1-3 seed
Denver Broncos (11-3) -- 1-4 seed
New England Patriots (10-4) -- 1-4 seed
Baltimore Ravens (9-5) -- 3-6 seed
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) -- 98.1%
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) -- 50.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) -- 51.6%
Miami Dolphins (6-8) -- 0.1%

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
(1)HOU > (2)DEN on head-to-head win
(1)NE > (2)HOU > (3)DEN on 3-way head-to-head sweep
(2)NE > (3)DEN on head-to-head win
(2)NE > (3)HOU on head-to-head win
(2)NE > (3)BAL > (4)DEN on conference record, after 3-way head-to-head tie
(2/3)DEN > (3/4)BAL on head-to-head win
(3)BAL > (4)NE on head-to-head win
(3)NE > (4)CIN on conference record

HOU will get the 1 seed if they avoid losing both games or DEN and NE both lose a game. Therefore a win this week (or DEN & NE losing) would give HOU the option to rest starters in the final week @ IND

The AFC North

Possible tiebreakers:
BAL > CIN on division record after head-to-head tie
PIT > CIN on head-to-head wins
PIT > BAL > CIN on 3-way head-to-head record

The AFC North race and Wild Card scenarios highly revolve around 2 games: CIN @ PIT this week and BAL @ CIN next week.
-BAL wins division with any win, or if PIT wins vs CIN & loses Wk 17
-PIT makes playoffs with win vs CIN and at least matching CIN Wk 17 result (while avoiding MIA scenario if both lose)
-PIT wins division with 2 wins and 2 BAL losses on 3-way head-to-head win percentage with BAL & CIN
-CIN makes playoffs with win this week @ PIT, or a Wk 17 win & PIT loss
-CIN wins division with win this week, BAL loss this week, and win vs BAL next week

The Others

Possible tiebreakers:
IND & CIN tie for 5 seed would come down to common games, due to conference record tie
IND & PIT tie for 5 seed would come down to common games, due to conference record tie
(5)BAL > (6)IND on conference record
(6)MIA > (-)PIT on conference record, after PIT > CIN within division

-IND only misses playoffs with 2 losses, PIT win vs CIN this week, and PIT & CIN wins next week, and losing at least 1 common games tiebreaker
-MIA makes playoffs with 2 wins and PIT win vs CIN this week, and PIT & CIN losses next week

NFC

Atlanta Falcons (12-2) -- 1-3 seed
San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1) -- 1-3 or 5 seed
Green Bay Packers (10-4) -- 1-4 seed
Seattle Seahawks (9-5) -- 92.3%
Washington Redskins (8-6) -- 67.6%
New York Giants (8-6) -- 50.0%
Dallas Cowboys (8-6) -- 36.8%
Chicago Bears (8-6) -- 29.6%
Minnesota Vikings (8-6) -- 23.4%
St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) -- 0.1%
New Orleans Saints (6-8) -- 0.2%

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
(1/2)GB > (2/3)ATL on conference record
GB & WAS tie for 3 seed would come down to common games, due to conference record tie
(3)GB > (4)DAL on conference record
(3)NYG > (4)GB on head-to-head win

-SF win division unless they lose both games and SEA wins Wk 17
-ATL will get the 1 seed if they avoid losing both games or SF and GB both lose a game. Therefore a win this week (or SF & GB losing) would give the ATL the option to rest starters in the final week vs TB
-SF possible tiebreakers not listed because it would require another team to tie a game
-GB already won division due to head-to-head wins over CHI and head-to-head win & division record over MIN

The NFC East

Possible tiebreakers:
WAS > DAL on head-to-head wins with Wk 17 WAS win
DAL > WAS on common games with Wk 17 DAL win, after tie on head-to-head and division record
WAS > NYG on division record after head-to-head tie
DAL > NYG on division record with Wk 17 DAL win or Wk 17 NYG loss, or on common games otherwise
WAS > NYG > DAL on 3-way head-to-head record with WAS Wk 17 win vs DAL
DAL > WAS > NYG on division record and then common games with DAL Wk 17 win @ WAS, after 3-way head-to-head tie

-The winner of DAL @ WAS in Wk 17 wins the division if they won their Wk 16 game
-DAL can not win division with Wk 17 loss @ WAS
-NYG only wins division with 2 wins and winner of DAL @ WAS Wk 17 game having lost their Wk 16 game

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
MIN > CHI on division record with MIN Wk 17 win or CHI Wk 17 loss, or on common games otherwise
SEA > DAL on head-to-head win
SEA > CHI on head-to-head win
SEA > MIN on head-to-head win
WAS > MIN on head-to-head win
CHI > DAL on head-to-head win
NYG > SEA on conference record
WAS > SEA on conference record
NYG > CHI on conference record
WAS > CHI on conference record
DAL & MIN determined by conference record or common games
NYG & MIN determined by conference record or common games

-Some 3-way tiebreakers are possible but not listed
-STL possible tiebreakers not listed because it would require another team to tie a game
-SEA clinches playoff spot with any win on head-to-head wins over CHI & MIN
-NYG clinches playoff spot with 2 wins on conference record over CHI & MIN
-STL makes playoffs with 2 wins and NYG, CHI, MIN & loser of Wk 17 DAL @ WAS losing all remaining games
-NO makes playoffs with 2 wins and 1 STL loss, NYG, CHI, MIN, & loser of Wk 17 DAL @ WAS losing all remaining games, if they win common games tiebreaker over MIN, and WAS if they lost Wk 17 vs DAL