2 Week Playoff Scenarios 2013

By Michael Gertz
Thursday, December 19, 2013

With 2 weeks left, the following are most possible scenarios for the rest of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. For wild card tiebreakers, ties are first broken within each division and then between different divisions. Also listed are potential games where teams could rest starters for the playoffs, which even include some Week 16 night games. Sometimes teams rest starters even when they could still move between a #3 and #4 seed, or #5 and #6 seed. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and playoff odds, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Denver Broncos (11-3) -- @HOU, @OAK
Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) -- vIND, @SD
New England Patriots (10-4) -- @BAL, vBUF
Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) -- vMIN, vBAL
Indianapolis Colts (9-5) -- @KC, vJAC
Baltimore Ravens (8-6) -- vNE, @CIN
Miami Dolphins (8-6) -- @BUF, vNYJ
San Diego Chargers (7-7) -- vOAK, vKC
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) -- @GB, vCLE

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
DEN > KC on head to head sweep
BAL > CIN on head to head sweep or division record
MIA > NE on division record

Scenarios:
-KC has to win 1 more game than DEN to win AFC West
-CIN wins AFC North with win + BAL loss in Wk 16, otherwise BAL @ CIN Wk 17 determines AFC North
-MIA wins AFC East with 2 wins + 2 NE losses, otherwise NE does

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
NE > DEN on head to head win
NE > KC on conference record
CIN > DEN on conference record
IND > DEN on head to head win
CIN > NE on head to head win (WC possibility too)
IND > NE on conference record
CIN > IND on head to head win
BAL > NE on head to head win
BAL > IND on common games
MIA > CIN on head to head win (WC possibility too)
BAL > MIA on head to head win (WC possibility too)
MIA > IND on head to head win

CIN > NE > DEN with CIN & NE > DEN on conference record, then CIN > NE on head to head win
IND > NE > DEN on conference record
CIN > IND > NE with CIN > IND & NE on head to head sweep, then IND > NE on conference record
BAL > IND > NE with BAl & IND > NE on conference record, then BAL > IND on common games
MIA > CIN > IND with MIA > CIN & IND on head to head sweep, then CIN > IND on head to head win
MIA > BAL > IND, with MIA > BAL & IND on conference record, then BAL > IND on common games

IND > CIN > NE > DEN with IND > CIN & NE & DEN on conference record, then CIN > NE > DEN as above

Scenarios:
-All 2-team tiebreakers follow a BAL > MIA > CIN > IND > NE > DEN > KC pecking order
-Many scenarios for seeding, in general teams catching up to others in standings will leap them in seeding

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers not already listed above:
BAL > SD on conference record
MIA > SD on head to head win
CIN > SD on head to head win
MIA > BAL & SD on conference record
MIA > CIN & SD on head to head sweep
MIA > PIT & BAL with PIT > BAL on division record, then MIA > PIT on head to head win
BAL > NYJ & MIA with NYJ > MIA on division record, then BAL > NYJ on head to head win

MIA > SD & PIT & BAL with PIT > BAL on division record, then MIA > SD & PIT on head to head sweep
BAL > SD & NYJ & MIA with NYJ > MIA on division record, then BAl > SD & NYJ on conference record
PIT > NYJ & BAL & MIA with PIT > BAL on division record & NYJ > MIA on division record, then PIT > NYJ on head to head win

PIT > SD & NYJ & BAL & MIA with PIT > BAL on division record & NYJ > MIA on division record, then PIT > SD & NYJ on conference record

Scenarios:
-2nd place team in AFC West will be the #5 seed
-NYJ are eliminated, but could still affect tiebreakers
-PIT can only make playoffs with 2 wins + 2 NYJ wins + 2 BAL losses + 1 SD loss + MIA Wk 16 loss
-SD can't win any tiebreakers, only make playoffs with 2 wins + 2 BAL losses + 2 MIA losses
-MIA clinches playoffs with 2 wins, because at worst they would qualify over the Wk 17 BAL @ CIN loser
-MIA clinches playoffs with 1 win + Wk 16 CIN loss + Wk 16 BAL loss
-CIN clinches playoffs with Wk 16 win + 1 MIA loss
-BAL clinches playoffs with 1 win + 1 MIA loss + 1 SD loss
-NE can only miss playoffs with 2 losses + 2 MIA wins + BAL Wk 17 win + CIN Wk 16 win

Potential for Resting Starters

-DEN would clinch #1 seed with Wk 16 win + KC loss + NE loss, and have useless Wk 17 game
-KC would be guaranteed #5 seed with Wk 16 loss + DEN win, and have useless Wk 17 game @SD (which could affect playoff picture)
-IND would be guaranteed #4 seed with Wk 16 loss + NE win + CIN win, and have useless Wk 17 game
-IND would be guaranteed #3 or #4 seed with Wk 16 loss + NE win, and could choose to rest starters Wk 17

NFC

Seattle Seahawks (12-2) -- vARI, vSTL
New Orleans Saints (10-4) -- @CAR, vTB
Carolina Panthers (10-4) -- vNO, @ATL
San Francisco 49ers (10-4) -- vATL, @ARI
Arizona Cardinals (9-5) -- @SEA, vSF
Philadelphia Eagles (8-6) -- vCHI, @DAL
Chicago Bears (8-6) -- @PHI, vGB
Green Bay Packers (7-6-1) -- vPIT, @CHI
Dallas Cowboys (7-7) -- @WAS, vPHI
Detroit Lions (7-7) -- vNYG, @MIN

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
SF > SEA on division record
NO > CAR on head to head sweep or division record
DAL > PHI on head to head sweep
DET > CHI on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
-SF wins NFC West with 2 wins + 2 SEA losses, otherwise SEA does
-CAR wins NFC South with win Wk 16 vNO + at least match NO Wk 17 result, otherwise NO does
-PHI wins NFC East with win + DAL loss in Wk 16, otherwise PHI @ DAL Wk 17 determines result
-CHI wins NFC North with 2 wins OR Wk 16 win + Wk 16 GB loss + 1 DET loss OR Wk 17 win vGB + 1 DET loss
-GB wins NFC North with 2 wins OR Wk 17 win @CHI + Wk 16 CHI loss + 1 DET loss
-DET wins NFC North with 2 wins + winner of Wk 17 GB @ CHI having lost in Wk 16

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
SEA > NO on head to head win
SEA > CAR on head to head win
NO > SF on head to head win (WC possibility too)
CAR > SF on head to head win (WC possibility too)
PHI & CHI determined by Wk 16 head to head
PHI > DET on head to head win
CHI > DAL on head to head win
DET > DAL on head to head win

Scenarios:
-The #1 and #2 seeds will come from the NFC South and NFC West
-The #3 and #4 seeds will come from the NFC East and NFC North
-SEA gets #1 seed if they win the NFC West

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers not already listed above:
SF > ARI on division record
ARI > CAR on head to head win
NO > ARI on head to head win

NO > SF > ARI with SF > ARI on division record, then NO > SF on head to head win
CAR > SF > ARI with SF > ARI on division record, then CAR > SF on head to head win

Scenarios:
-SF makes playoffs with 1 win OR Wk 16 ARI loss
-NO makes playoffs with 1 win OR 1 ARI loss OR 2 SF losses
-CAR makes playoffs with 1 win OR 2 ARI losses OR Wk 16 ARI loss + Wk 16 SF loss
-ARI eliminated from playoffs with 2 losses OR 1 loss + 1 CAR win OR Wk 16 SF win + Wk 16 NO @ CAR loser winning Wk 17

Potential for Resting Starters

[PHI has said they will not rest starters in Wk 16, CHI is unclear, and SF is unknown]
-PHI could only move between #3 and #4 seed in Wk 16 Sunday night with DAL Wk 16 win earlier Sunday, with Wk 17 @DAL determining NFC East, and could choose to rest starters wk 16
-CHI could only move between #3 and #4 seed in Wk 16 Sunday night with GB Wk 16 win + DET Wk 16 loss earlier Sunday, with Wk 17 vGB determining NFC North, and could choose to rest starters Wk 16
-SF would be guaranteed #5 or #6 seed with Wk 16 SEA win vARI on Sunday, and could choose to rest starters both Wk 16 Monday and Wk 17

-SEA would clinch #1 seed with Wk 16 win OR SF loss, and have useless Wk 17 game
-PHI would be guaranteed #3 or #4 seed with Wk 16 win + DAl loss, and could choose to rest starters Wk 17
-PHI would be guaranteed #3 seed with Wk 16 win + DAL loss + GB loss, and would have useless Wk 17 game
-CHI would be guaranteed #3 or #4 seed with Wk 16 win + GB loss + DET loss, and could choose to rest starters Wk 17