2 Week Playoff Scenarios 2019

By Michael Gertz
Saturday, December 21, 2019

The following are all possible playoff tiebreakers and most seeding scenarios for the final 2 weeks of the season. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-2) -- @CLE, vPIT
2. New England Patriots (11-3) -- vBUF, vMIA
3. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) -- @CHI, vLAC
4. Houston Texans (9-5) -- @TB, vTEN
5. Buffalo Bills (10-4) -- @NE, vNYJ
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) -- @NYJ, @BAL
7. Tennessee Titans (8-6) -- vNO, @HOU
8. Cleveland Browns (6-8) -- vBAL, @CIN
9. Oakland Raiders (6-8) -- @LAC, @DEN
10*. Indianapolis Colts (6-8) -- vCAR, @JAC
*IND are eliminated as they lost head to head vs PIT & OAK, and would lose conference record tiebreaker to CLE

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-NE > BUF on head to head with NE win Wk 16 vBUF, or common games
-HOU > TEN on division record

Scenarios:
-NE wins AFC East with 1 win OR 1 BUF loss
-BUF wins AFC East with 2 wins + NE Wk 17 loss
-BAL has won AFC North
-HOU wins AFC South with 1 win OR 1 TEN loss
-TEN wins AFC South with 2 wins + HOU Wk 16 loss
-KC has won AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-BAL > NE on head to head
-KC > BAL on head to head
-BAL > BUF on head to head
-KC > NE on head to head
-HOU > NE on head to head
-KC > BUF on common games
-HOU > KC on head to head
-TEN > KC on head to head

-KC > BAL > NE with KC > BAL & NE on head to head sweep, then BAL > NE on head to head
-HOU > KC > NE with HOU > KC & NE on head to head sweep, then KC > NE on head to head
-KC > BUF > BAL with KC & BUF > BAL on conference record, then KC > BUF on common games

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-BUF > PIT on head to head
-BUF > TEN on head to head
-HOU > PIT on conference record
-PIT > TEN on conference record at 10-6 OR (9-7 + TEN Wk 17 loss @HOU)
-PIT - TEN down to strength of victory at 8-8 OR (9-7 + TEN Wk 17 win @HOU)

-BUF > PIT > TEN with BUF > PIT & TEN on head to head sweep, then PIT > TEN on conference record
-TEN > CLE & PIT with CLE > PIT on divisin record, then TEN > CLE on head to head
-TEN > PIT & OAK on strength of victory
-PIT > IND & TEN with IND > TEN on division record, then PIT > IND on head to head

-TEN > CLE & OAK & PIT with CLE > PIT on division record, then TEN > CLE & OAK on head to head sweep
-CLE > IND & PIT & TEN with IND > TEN on division record & CLE > PIT on division record, then CLE > IND on conference record
-PIT - OAK > IND & TEN wth IND > TEN on division record, then PIT & OAK > IND on head to head sweep, then PIT - OAK down to strength of victory

-CLE > OAK & IND & PIT & TEN with IND > TEN on division record & CLE > PIT on division record, then CLE > OAK & IND on conference record

Scenarios:
HOU:
-#6 seed with 2 losses + TEN Wk 16 win + 1 PIT loss
-Eliminated with 2 losses + TEN Wk 16 win + 2 PIT wins
BUF:
-#5 seed with 1 loss OR 1 NE win
PIT:
-#6 seed or eliminated possible
TEN:
-#6 seed or eliminated possible
CLE:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + 2 PIT losses + 2 TEN losses + 2 IND wins
OAK:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + 2 PIT losses + 2 TEN losses + 2 IND wins + 1 CLE loss + strength of victory over PIT

Potential for Resting Starters

-BAL would clinch #1 seed with Wk 16 win OR (NE loss + KC loss), and could rest starters Wk 17 vPIT
-NE would be locked into #2 seed with Wk 16 win + BAL Wk 16 win + KC Wk 16 loss, and could rest starters Wk 17 vMIA
-KC would be locked into only possibly getting the #3 or #4 seed with Wk 16 loss + NE Wk 16 win, and could rest starters Wk 17 vLAC
-HOU would be locked into only possibly getting the #3 or #4 seed with Wk 16 win + NE Wk 16 win OR Wk 16 loss + TEN Wk 16 loss, and could rest starters Wk 17 vTEN
-BUF would be locked into #5 seed with Wk 16 loss @NE, and could rest starters Wk 17 vNYJ

NFC

Current Standings

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-3) -- vARI, vSF
2. Green Bay Packers (11-3) -- @MIN, @DET
3. New Orleans Saints (11-3) -- @TEN, @CAR
4. Dallas Cowboys (7-7) -- @PHI, vWAS
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-3) -- vLAR, @SEA
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-4) -- vGB, vCHI
7. Los Angeles Rams (8-6) -- @SF, vARI
8. Philadelphia Eagles (7-7) -- vDAL, @NYG

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-DAL > PHI on head to head with DAL win Wk 16 @PHI, or division record
-GB > MIN on division record
-SEA > SF on head to head with SEA win Wk 17 vSF
-SF - SEA decided by strength of victory with SF win Wk 17 @SEA

Scenarios:
-DAL wins NFC East with win Wk 16 @PHI OR Wk 17 win + PHI Wk 17 loss
-PHI wins NFC East with win Wk 16 vDAL + (Wk 17 win OR Wk 17 DAL loss)
-GB wins NFC North with 1 win OR MIN Wk 17 loss
-MIN wins NFC North with 2 wins + GB Wk 17 loss
-NO has won NFC South
-SEA wins NFC West with Wk 17 win vSF OR (Wk 16 win + SF Wk 16 loss + win strength of victory)
-SF wins NFC West with Wk 17 win @SEA + (Wk 16 win OR Wk 16 SEA loss OR win strength of victory)

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-SEA > GB on common games
-NO > SEA on head to head
-SEA > MIN on head to head
-GB > NO on conference record at 13-3, or common games at 11-5
-GB > NO on conference record at 12-4 with NO loss Wk 17 @CAR
-GB - NO down to strength of victory at 12-4 with NO win Wk 17 @CAR
-SF > GB on head to head
-SF > NO on head to head
-MIN > NO on conference record with NO loss Wk 17 @CAR
-NO > MIN on common games with NO win Wk 17 @CAR
-SF - MIN down to strength of victory

-SEA > GB > NO on conference record at 13-3, or with NO loss Wk 17 @CAR, then SEA > GB on common games
-SEA - GB - NO down to strength of victory at 12-4 with NO win Wk 17 @CAR
-SEA - MIN - NO down to strength of victory with NO win Wk 17 @CAR
-SEA > MIN > NO with NO loss Wk 17 @CAR, with SEA & MIN > NO on conference record, then SEA > MIN on head to head
-SF > GB & NO on head to head sweep
-SF - MIN - NO down to strength of victory with NO win Wk 17 @CAR
-SF - MIN > NO with NO loss Wk 17 @CAR, with SF & MIN > NO on conference record, then SF - MIN down to common games

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-SEA > GB on common games
-SF > GB on head to head
-SEA > MIN on head to head
-MIN > SF on common games with MIN win Wk 16 vGB + SF loss Wk 17 @SEA
-SF - MIN down to strength of victory with MIN loss Wk 16 vGB OR SF win Wk 17 @SEA
-LAR > MIN on conference record

Scenarios:
SEA:
-#5 seed with finish under SF + (1 win OR 1 MIN loss OR 2 GB losses)
-#6 seed with 2 losses + 2 MIN wins + GB win Wk 17
GB:
-#6 seed with 2 losses + MIN win Wk 17
SF:
-#5 seed with finish under SEA + above MIN/GB
-#6 seed with finish under SEA + MIN as #5
MIN:
-#5 seed with finish under GB + over SF/SEA
-#6 seed with fiiish under GB + SF/SEA
-Eliminated with 2 losses + 2 LAR wins
LAR:
-#6 seed with 2 wins + 2 MIN losses
-Eliminated with 1 loss OR 1 MIN win

Potential for Resting Starters

-DAL could be locked into #4 seed with win Wk 16 @PHI, and could rest starters Wk 17 vWAS
-MIN could be locked into only possibly getting the #5 or #6 seed with Wk 16 loss vGB + LAR loss Wk 16, and could rest starters Wk 17 vCHI
-MIN could be locked into #6 seed with loss Wk 16 vGB + LAR loss Wk 16 + SEA win Wk 16 + SF win Wk 16, and could rest starters Wk 17 vCHI