Final Week Playoff Scenarios 2013

By Michael Gertz
Tuesday, December 24, 2013

With 1 week left, the following are all possible scenarios for the final week as well as all possible tiebreakers. For wild card tiebreakers, ties are first broken within each division and then between different divisions. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and playoff odds, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Denver Broncos (12-3) -- @OAK
New England Patriots (11-4) -- vBUF
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) -- vBAL
Indianapolis Colts (10-5) -- vJAC
Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) -- @SD
Baltimore Ravens (8-7) -- @CIN
Miami Dolphins (8-7) -- vNYJ
San Diego Chargers (8-7) -- vKC
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) -- vCLE

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
DEN > KC on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
-NE has won the AFC East
-CIN has won the AFC North
-IND has won the AFC South
-DEN has won the AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
NE > DEN on head to head win
CIN > NE on head to head win
IND > NE on conference record
CIN > IND on head to head win

CIN > IND > NE with CIN > IND & NE on head to head sweep, then IND > NE on conference record

Scenarios:
-If NE wins and DEN loses, NE is #1 and DEN is #2, otherwise DEN is #1
-If NE & CIN win or IND loses, NE is #1 or #2, CIN is #3, IND is #4
-If NE wins, CIN loses, and IND wins, NE is #1 or #2, IND is #3, CIN is #4
-If NE loses and CIN & IND win, CIN is #2, IND is #3, NE is #4
-If NE & CIN lose and IND wins, IND is #2, NE is #3, CIN is #4

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
BAL > MIA on head to head win
BAL > SD on conference record
MIA > SD on head to head win

MIA > BAL & SD on conference record

MIA > SD & PIT & BAL with PIT > BAL on division record, then MIA > SD & PIT on head to head sweep
BAL > SD & NYJ & MIA with NYJ > MIA on division record, then BAl > SD & NYJ on conference record

PIT > SD & NYJ & BAL & MIA with PIT > BAL on division record & NYJ > MIA on division record, then PIT > SD & NYJ on conference record

Scenarios:
-KC is the #5 seed
-NYJ are eliminated, but could still affect tiebreakers
-If BAL, MIA & SD all win, MIA is #6 seed
-If BAL wins & SD loses, BAL is #6 seed
-If BAL loses & MIA wins, MIA is #6 seed
-If BAL & MIA lose and SD wins, SD is #6 seed
-If BAL, MIA & SD lose and PIT wins, PIT is #6 seed
-If BAL, MIA, SD & PIT all lose, MIA is #6 seed

Potential for Resting Starters

[Reports indicate the Chiefs will play backups for much of the game @SD]
-KC is guaranteed the #5 seed and may choose to rest starters (which helps SD, hurts BAL & PIT, and helps MIA unless they, BAL, & PIT all lose)

NFC

Seattle Seahawks (12-3) -- vSTL
Carolina Panthers (11-4) -- @ATL
San Francisco 49ers (11-4) -- @ARI
New Orleans Saints (10-5) -- vTB
Arizona Cardinals (10-5) -- vSF
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) -- @DAL
Chicago Bears (8-7) -- vGB
Dallas Cowboys (8-7) -- vPHI
Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) -- @CHI

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
SF > SEA on division record
NO > CAR on division record
DAL > PHI on head to head sweep

Scenarios:
-Winner of PHI @ DAL wins NFC East
-Winner of GB @ CHI wins NFC North
-CAR wins NFC South with win or NO loss, otherwise NO does
-SEA wins NFC West with win or SF loss, otherwise SF does

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
SEA > CAR on head to head win
CAR > SF on head to head win
CHI > DAL on head to head win

Scenarios:
-If SEA wins OR SF loses, SEA is #1 seed and NFC South winner is #2
-If SEA loses and SF & CAR win, CAR is #1 and SF is #2
-If SEA loses, SF wins, and CAR loses, SF is #1 and NFC South winner is #2
-If PHI wins, PHI is #3 and GB @ CHI winner is #4
-If DAL & CHI win, CHI is #3 and DAL is #4
-If DAL & GB win, DAL is #3 and GB is #4

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
SF > ARI on division record
NO > ARI on head to head win

NO > SF > ARI with SF > ARI on division record, then NO > SF on head to head win
CAR > SF > ARI with SF > ARI on division record, then CAR > SF on head to head win

Scenarios:
-If SEA, CAR, NO, & SF all win, SF is #5 and NO is #6
-If CAR, NO, & ARI all win, NO is #5 and SF is #6
-If NO loses & ARI wins, SF is #5 and ARI is #6
-If SEA, NO, & SF win and CAR loses, SF is #5 and CAR is #6
-If NO & ARI win and CAR loses, CAR is #5 and SF is #6
-If SF wins & SEA loses, SEA is #5 and 2nd place from NFC South is #6

Potential for Resting Starters

None