Final Week Playoff Scenarios 2014

By Michael Gertz
Friday, December 26, 2014

With one week left, the following are all possible scenarios for the rest of the season as well as all possible tiebreakers. Scenarios including games ending in ties are only listed for those games between teams competing head to head for division titbles. For wild card tiebreakers, ties are first broken within each division and then between different divisions. Also listed are potential games where teams could rest starters for the playoffs. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and playoff odds, visit the Standings page.

AFC

1. New England Patriots (12-3) -- vBUF
2. Denver Broncos (11-4) -- vOAK
3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-4-1) -- @PIT
4. Indianapolis Colts (10-5) -- @TEN
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) -- vCIN
6. San Diego Chargers (9-6) -- @KC
7. Baltimore Ravens (9-6) -- vCLE
8. Houston Texans (8-7) -- vJAC
9. Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) -- vSD
10*. Miami Dolphins (8-7) -- vNYJ
11*. Buffalo Bills (8-7) -- @NE

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
None

Scenarios:
-NE has won AFC East
-DEN has won AFC West
-IND has won AFC South
-Winner of CIN@PIT wins AFC North (CIN wins with tie)

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-NE > DEN on head to head win
-CIN > DEN on head to head win
-DEN > IND on head to head win
-DEN > PIT on strength of victory
-IND > CIN on head to head win
-PIT > IND on head to head win

-DEN > PIT > IND with DEN & PIT > IND on head to head sweep, then DEN > PIT on strength of victory
-DEN > IND > CIN with DEN & IND > CIN on conference record, then DEN > IND on head to head win

Scenarios:
NE:
-#1 seed
DEN:
-#2 seed with win OR loss + CIN loss OR loss + CIN/PIT tie + IND win
-#3 seed with loss + CIN win OR loss + CIN/PIT tie + IND loss
CIN:
-#2 seed with win + DEN loss OR tie + DEN loss + IND loss
-#3 seed with win + DEN win OR tie + DEN win + IND loss
-#4 seed with tie + IND win
IND:
-#3 seed with win + CIN/PIT tie
-#4 seed with loss OR win + CIN/PIT don't tie
PIT:
-#3 seed with win

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-PIT > SD on conference record
-PIT > BAL on conference record
-SD > BAL on head to head win

-PIT > SD > BAL with PIT > BAL on conference record, then PIT > SD on conference record, then SD > BAL on head to head win
-KC > SD > BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then KC > BAL on conference record, then SD > BAL on head to head win

-HOU > KC & SD & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then HOU > KC > BAL on conference record
-KC > MIA & SD & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then KC & BAL > MIA on head to head sweep, then KC > BAL on conference record
-KC > SD & BUF & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then KC > BUF & BAL on conference record

-HOU > KC & MIA & SD & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then HOU > KC & MIA & BAL on conference record
-HOU > KC & SD & BUF & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep, then HOU > KC & BUF & BAL on conference record
-KC > MIA & SD & BUF & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep and MIA > BUF on conference record, then KC & BAL > MIA on head to head sweep, then KC > BAL on conference record

-HOU > KC & MIA & SD & BUF & BAL with KC > SD on head to head sweep and MIA > BUF on conference record, then HOU > KC & MIA & BAL on conference record

Scenarios:
CIN:
-#5 seed with loss
PIT:
-#5 seed with loss OR tie
SD:
-#6 seed with win
-Eliminated with loss
BAL:
-#6 seed with win + SD loss
-Eliminated with loss OR SD win
HOU:
-#6 seed with win + SD loss + BAL loss
-Eliminated with loss OR SD win OR BAL win
KC:
-#6 seed with win + BAL loss + HOU loss
-Eliminated with loss OR BAL win OR HOU win
MIA:
-Eliminated, can only be involved in tiebreakers
BUF:
-Eliminated, can only be involved in tiebreakers

Potential for Resting Starters

-NE has clinched #1 seed and could rest starters
-IND will be either #3 or #4 seed, and #4 seed only with CIN/PIT tie, and could rest starters

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) -- vSTL
2. Detroit Lions (11-4) -- @GB
3. Dallas Cowboys (11-4) -- @WAS
4. Carolina Panthers (6-8-1) -- @ATL
5. Green Bay Packers (11-4) -- vDET
6. Arizona Cardinals (11-4) -- @SF
7. Atlanta Falcons (6-9) -- vCAR

Determining Division Winners

Possible tiebreakers:
SEA > ARI on head to head sweep
DET > GB on head to head record

Scenarios:
-DAL has won NFC East
-SEA wins NFC West unless they lose + ARI wins
-Winner of DET@GB wins NFC North (DET wins with tie)
-Winner of CAR@ATL wins NFC South (CAR wins with tie)

Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-SEA > DET on common games
-SEA > GB on head to head win
-DAL > SEA on head to head win
-DET > DAL on conference record
-GB > DAL on conference record
-ARI > DET on head to head win
-GB > ARI on common games
-ARI > DAL on head to head win

-SEA > DET > DAL with SEA & DET > DAL on conference record, then SEA > DET on common games
-SEA > GB > DAL on conference record
-ARI > DET > DAL with ARI > DET & DAL on head to head sweep, then DET > DAL on conference record
-GB > ARI > DAL with GB & ARI > DAL on conference record, then GB > ARI on common games

Scenarios:
SEA:
-#1 seed with win + (DET/GB don't tie OR DAL loss)
-#2 seed with win + DET/GB tie + DAL win
-#3 seed with loss + ARI loss
-#5 seed with loss + ARI win + GB/DET don't tie
-#6 seed with loss + ARI win + GB/DET tie
DET:
-#1 seed with win + SEA loss + ARI loss
-#2 seed with win + (SEA win OR ARI win)
-#3 seed with tie + DAL win + (SEA win or ARI win)
-#6 seed with loss
DAL:
-#1 seed with win + DET/GB tie + (SEA win OR ARI loss)
-$2 seed with SEA loss + ARI loss + (DET/GB don't tie if DAL wins) OR win + DET/GB tie + SEA loss + ARI win
-#3 seed with (SEA win OR ARI win) + (DET/GB don't tie if DAL wins)
GB:
-#1 seed with win + SEA loss
-#2 seed with win + SEA win
-#5 seed with loss + ARI loss
-#6 seed with loss + ARI win
ARI:
-#1 seed with win + SEA loss + GB loss
-#2 seed with win + SEA loss + GB win
-#5 seed with win + SEA win OR loss + DET loss
-#6 seed with loss + (GB loss OR tie)
CAR:
-#4 seed with win OR tie
-Eliminated with loss
ATL:
-#4 seed with win
-Eliminated with loss OR tie

Potential for Resting Starters

None