If 2021 Had 16 Games

By Michael Gertz
Monday, January 10, 2022

The NFL added a 17th game for each team in the 2021 season - a matchup against an opponent from the other conference that finished in the same rank in their division the prior season. Because of the way the extra game is set up, it is a rather simple process to examine how the 2021 season could have played out if that game were deleted from the schedule, and teams had played a 16 game schedule like in 2020 and prior seasons.

The extra game also didn't change much in terms of tiebreakers, as it only rarely affects the common games tiebreaker between teams from different divisions. Below we take a look at how a 16 game season could have played out. For a list of most tiebreakers, see our original Wk 18 Playoff Scenarios 2021 article.

AFC

Hypothetical Standings Before Final Week

1. New England Patriots (10-5) -- @MIA
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-5) -- @CLE
3. Tennessee Titans (10-5) -- @HOU
4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) -- @DEN
5. Indianapolis Colts (9-6) -- @JAC
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) -- @LV
7. Las Vegas Raiders (9-6) -- vLAC
8. Buffalo Bills (9-6) -- vNYJ
9. Baltimore Ravens (8-7) -- vPIT
10*. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1) -- @BAL
11*. Miami Dolphins (7-8) -- vNE
*Eliminated

Implications

Right away, we see that the Steelers would have actually been eliminated from the playoffs prior to the final week without their extra game win against the Seahawks. With the extra game, they ended up making the playoffs.

The standings at the top of the conference would have also been very different. The Tians, Chiefs, and Bills won their extra game, whereas most of the other teams actually lost theirs, so the whole playoff picture would have been much closer together, with much more depending on the final week. In fact, the Patriots would have come in as the #1 seed, with the Bengals as the #2.

What this means is the Bengals would have had to play their starters at the Browns. And as a result, they very well may have won that game. If we assume the rest of the final week games would have played out the same since the rest of the teams were playing to win, we see quite different results. The Patriots loss at the Dolphins, which only dropped them from #5 to #6 in the real world, could have dropped them all the way from #1 to #6. Meanwhile, the Bengals would have been playing for the #1 seed, which they quite possibly could have claimed if playing their starters.

The Wild Card spots would have played out somewhat similarly to reality. However, the Colts would have made the playoffs rather than the Steelers.

NFC

Hypothetical Standings Before Final Week

1. Green Bay Packers (13-2) -- @DET
2. Los Angeles Rams (11-4) -- vSF
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) -- vCAR
4. Dallas Cowboys (10-5) -- @PHI
5. Arizona Cardinals (10-5) -- vSEA
6. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) -- vDAL
7. New Orleans Saints (8-7) -- @ATL
8. San Francisco 49ers (8-7) -- @LAR

Implications

Unlike the AFC, the NFC would have come into the final week in a very similar situation to the real one. But one significant difference would have existed - the Saints would have come in tied with the 49ers and Eagles. This is because the Saints lost their extra game while the 49ers and Eagles won theirs. As a result, the Eagles would not have already clinched a playoff spot, and they would have had to play their starters vs the Cowboys.

Assuming the same results in all the other final week games, the Saints win would have earned them a playoff spot regardless of the Eagles game. If the Eagles had lost vs the Cowboys, they would have been eliminated. And if they had won, the 49ers would have been out.

Summary

Overall, the extra week of games essentially made the final week meaningless for the Bengals and Eagles, who otherwise would not have been able to rest their starters. That meant 3 playoff teams rested their starters rather than just the Packers. On the other hand, the extra game did keep the Steelers in a meaningful position as they would have already been eliminated under the prior schedule.

In terms of the overall playoff picture in the final week, the AFC would have looked dramatically different, while the NFC would have functioned very similarly. The AFC would have been much more closely contested overall, and would have also had many teams competing for different seeds than they did.

Accordingly, if we assume the competitive final week games would have had the same outcomes, the final playoff seeds could have been very different in the AFC but quite similar in the NFC. The Bengals could have had a very good shot at actually getting the #1 seed, with the Titans and Chiefs each finishing a slot lower than they did. And the Colts could have made the playoffs rather than the Steelers. While in the NFC the Saints could have made the playoffs over either the 49ers, or perhaps more likely, the Eagles.