Week 11 Rundown 2013

By Michael Gertz
Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Each week we rundown every game using our advanced play-by-play statistics to examine exactly how each game was won and what it means going forward. Our expected points added (EPA) analysis assigns a net point value gained or lost to every single play so we can see exactly on which types of plays teams excelled or failed, and ultimately where games were won. The EPA while each team was on offense gives a more representative measure of offensive efficiency than real life score by separating offensive success from advantages gained or lost by defensive stops, takeaways, and scores. View our complete stats for every play type each week on the Games page.

Despite some high profile games, not a lot changed in the big picture of the NFL in Week 11. Most of our Super Bowl and division winner odds only moved small amounts due to the game results, and as many as 9 teams are already all but locked into playoff spots. But on the positive side, the races for the 6 seeds in both conferences are shaping up to be exciting battles among a large number of contenders. In the NFC, only a few teams are likely to compete, but all would perhaps be playoff caliber teams in the average season. In the AFC, as many as 7 teams stand some chance of claiming the 6 seed, while perhaps none of them are worthy of actually making the playoffs.

(7-3) Colts 30 - 27 Titans (4-6)
Offensive EPA: IND (12.7) - (11.2) TEN
The Colts and Titans were very similarly efficient on offense in this game, finding success by minimizing sacks, avoiding interceptions, and rushing very well. Indianapolis was about equally effective at net passing (7.4) and rushing (7.3), while also going 3/3 on field goals (2.8). It was by far their best rushing effort of the season. The Titans were even a little better in net passing (10.2) in Ryan Fitzpatrick's best game yet as a Titan, but they weren't quite as dominant as the Colts in rushing (5.8). Their downfall was kick returns (-4.8) due to a lost fumble. The game result boosted the Colts chances of winning the division from 87% to 98%, virtually ending the AFC South race.

(5-5) Jets 14 - 37 Bills (4-7)
Offensive EPA: NYJ (-19.3) - (3.7) BUF
The Jets had their worst net passing (-17.8) due to a combination of poor normal pass plays (2.5), 3 interceptions (-11.8) including a touchdown, and 4 sacks (-8.5) including a lost fumble. They did rush well (3.6) but also struggled in other areas. On the other end, the Bills had their best net passing (8.7) of the season by mostly avoiding sacks and interceptions, while actually having their worst rushing (-4.5) game of the year.

(4-6) Ravens 20 - 23 Bears (6-4)
Offensive EPA: BAL (0.7) - (3.3) CHI
The Ravens net passing (-1.7) was a bit poor mostly due to their 2 interceptions (-8.1) including a touchdown, but they were generally solid in other areas. The Bears were solid in net passing (6.7) by mostly avoiding sacks and interceptions, and were pretty average otherwise. Josh McCown continues to be effective when he plays by minimizing negative plays. The Bears are now even with Detroit in the standings, but the Lions having the tiebreaker and a better rating makes them still somewhat strong favorites in the NFC North.

(4-6) Browns 20 - 41 Bengals (7-4)
Offensive EPA: CLE (-35.6) - (-14.6) CIN
Terrible offense by both teams doesn't usually result in high scoring games, but due to turnovers that is exactly what happened here. Jason Campbell had success in his first 2 starts by avoiding negative plays, but in this game he was terrible all around in net passing (-23.4). The Browns also had terrible punting (-7.9) due to a block that was returned for a touchdown and different long return. All told, it was the worst offensive efficiency from any team so far this season. The Bengals were also terrible on offense, just much less terrible. They were very poor in net passing (-11.9) due to very bad normal pass plays (-1.5) and 2 interceptions including a touchdown. Andy Dalton has now followed his incredibly strong Weeks 6-8 with 3 incredibly terrible games.

(3-7) Redskins 16 - 24 Eagles (6-5)
Offensive EPA: WAS (4.1) - (12.1) PHI
The Redskins defense and bad luck have been much more to blame for their poor record than Robert Griffin. They have actually been above average in net passing in 7/10 games, as they were this week (5.1). Although they suffered 4 sacks (-7.6) including a lost fumble, they made up for it with strong normal pass plays (16.4). The Eagles surprising passing success with Nick Foles continues, and is really becoming a trend. This week their net passing (10.3) was again very strong, and they also had effective punting (4.0). The Eagles are now slight favorites in the NFC East with the best record and rating, but their Week 17 matchup at Dallas will be crucial. Due to their previous loss vs the Cowboys, Philadelphia would have to come into that game with a 2 game lead in order to be able to lose it and still win the division.

(6-4) Lions 27 - 37 Steelers (4-6)
Offensive EPA: DET (-0.1) - (9.5) PIT
The Lions were yet again great in net passing (9.7), but struggled with turnovers (-8.3) from a Reggie Bush fumble and 3 failed 4th down attempts. Of the 4th down attempts, one came early, one was a fake field goal, and one was required by late desperation. The Steelers net passing (22.1) was even better, and allowed them to overcome their terrible rushing (-7.9). Pittsburgh has been incredibly inconsistent passing, as one of the only teams in the league that ruitinely produces both very good and poor games. The Steelers now have an 18% chance of claiming a wild card spot in the weak AFC race.

(4-6) Raiders 28 - 23 Texans (2-8)
Offensive EPA: OAK (-4.2) - (-8.7) HOU
In his first NFL game, Matt McGloin didn't show much promise with poor normal pass plays (3.2), but retained only slightly below average net passing (0.6) by avoiding interceptions. With both Keenum and Schaub, the Texans were a little poor in normal pass plays (5.7). They also struggled in rushing (-3.3) a bit, and had turnovers (-6.0) from a Garrett Graham fumble and a late desperation failed 4th down attempt.

(2-8) Falcons 28 - 41 Buccaneers (2-8)
Offensive EPA: ATL (2.9) - (14.5) TB
Matt Ryan's recent interception problems continued, with 2 more this game (-9.8) including a touchdown. But his strong normal pass plays (16.6) allowed their net passing (3.2) to remain about league average. Atlanta did rush very well (8.7) for the first time all season, but struggled in punting (-3.6) due to a blocked kick. They also had turnovers (-4.8) from a Roddy White fumble and an early failed 4th down attempt. The Bucs had their best net passing (9.7) and rushing (5.0) of the season.

(6-4) Cardinals 27 - 14 Jaguars (1-9)
Offensive EPA: ARI (5.5) - (-7.5) JAC
The Cardinals have now had 3 of their best 4 net passing games of the season in the past 3 games, with this week being their best net passing (14.0) mark of the year. However, their rushing (-5.3) was very poor, and the Jaguars defense is terrible. If the Arizona pass offense truly flipped a switch and continues to play as they have recently, they have a solid chance of making the playoffs, but in our odds based on the entire season they remain unlikely to see the postseason. The Jags were again poor in net passing (-3.8), due to subpar normal pass plays (6.1) and 2 interceptions (-7.0). Jacksonville also ran poorly (-2.2) but punted well (3.7).

(4-6) Chargers 16 - 20 Dolphins (5-5)
Offensive EPA: SD (3.8) - (7.4) MIA
Both offenses in this game were effective, but their success cancelled each other out in field position and created a low scoring game. The Chargers offense was slightly above average in most categories. The Dolphins were slightly below average in net passing (2.5), but rushed very well (6.2) and generally had success in lesser categories. This game was actually very important towards the race for the 6 seed in the AFC, with the Dolphins now taking over from the Chargers as favorites and claiming the head to head tiebreaker, although the race is still wide open to several other teams as well.

(6-4) 49ers 20 - 23 Saints (8-2)
Offensive EPA: SF (3.9) - (6.9) NO
The 49ers net passing (1.7) was slightly below average due to poor normal pass plays (4.5), and their rushing (-4.3) was poor as well. The only thing boosting their overall offensive mark above average was good punting (7.0), mostly because they recovered a muffed return. In a matter of 2 weeks, the 49ers playoff chances have dropped from 72% to 43%, as they remain favorites to advance but now face stiff competition from a few teams. The Saints offense was just a bit above average in most every area.

(5-5) Packers 13 - 27 Giants (4-6)
Offensive EPA: GB (-8.3) - (4.8) NYG
Scott Tolzien once again showed a little promise with solid normal pass plays (12.7), but had a bit below average net passing (-0.3) because of 3 more interceptions (-13.0) including a touchdown. The Packers poor rushing (-2.8) didn't help. The Giants were slightly below average in net passing (1.6), but rushed well (3.0) and were generally positive in lesser categories. The Giants have had a lucky stretch against some poor backup quarterbacks and are only a game and a half out of the NFC East lead, but are still playing much worse than in previous seasons and their chances remain very slim.

(2-8) Vikings 20 - 41 Seahawks (10-1)
Offensive EPA: MIN (-9.4) - (12.0) SEA
The Vikings strong 3 game passing streak under Ponder came to an end with poor net passing (-4.6) due to 3 interceptions (-12.8). Ponder started the 4th quarter with an interception and pick-6 on consecutive drives, then Cassel came in and threw a 3rd on the following drive. The Seahawks had strong net passing (11.6) again by limiting negative plays and having solid normal pass plays (13.2). Both teams were pretty average in areas other than passing.

(9-1) Chiefs 17 - 27 Broncos (9-1)
Offensive EPA: KC (-4.3) - (5.7) DEN
The Chiefs net passing (5.4) was solid by avoiding interceptions, but they lost points on turnovers (-5.4) from an Anthony Sherman fumble and a late desperation failed 4th down attempt. The Broncos were limited to their worst normal pass plays (14.1) of the season. But that figure is still above league average, and having no sacks or interceptions meant their net passing was still very good. Denver lost some points in lesser categories, including a lost fumbled handoff (-4.0). With an easy final 4 games, the Broncos would most likely have to lose both of the next 2 weeks at New England and Kansas City to not claim home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

(7-3) Patriots 20 - 24 Panthers (7-3)
Offensive EPA: NE (10.7) - (14.7) CAR
The Patriots were very strong in net passing (16.6) and also rushed well (2.2), but lost points on a Steven Ridley fumble lost (-3.3). They lost further points in our last plays of each half (-3.6) category due to running out of time at the end of the game. The Panthers had their best net passing (19.8) of the season, aided by some key scrambles by Cam Newton. They rushed poorly (-2.4), but the strong passing and an avoidance of negatives in lesser categories was enough to secure the win. Carolina has all but wrapped up a playoff spot now, with an 86% chance of advancing.

Byes: Cowboys (5-5), Rams (4-6)