Week 2 Rundown 2013

By Michael Gertz
Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Each week we rundown every game using our advanced play-by-play statistics to examine exactly how each game was won and what it means going forward. Our expected points added (EPA) analysis assigns a net point value gained or lost to every single play so we can see exactly on which types of plays teams excelled or failed, and ultimately where games were won. The EPA while each team was on offense gives a more representative measure of offensive efficiency than real life score by separating offensive success from advantages gained or lost by defensive stops, takeaways, and scores. View our complete stats for every play type each week on the Games page.

Another week, another set of extreme statistical results in the NFL in 2013. Following extremely good passing performances in Week 1 by the Broncos and 49ers, Week 2 saw the Chargers and Packers put up passing numbers that will remain among the best of 2013 at season's end. Incredibly, it was the 49ers that followed up the Jaguars Week 1 passing debacle with an almost as terrible performance of their own. Week 2 also provided some instances where a game's final score didn't tell the whole story. Despite losing, strong passing numbers are a positive sign going forward for the Eagles, Rams, and Giants. Meanwhile, despite winning, the Patriots had one of their worst passing performances in recent years. A final storyline was unimpressive games by young quarterbacks Geno Smith and Terrelle Pryor after their strong starts to the season.

(1-1) Jets 10 - 13 Patriots (2-0)
Offensive EPA: NYJ (-18.7) - (-15.7) NE
A surprise early candidate for ugliest game of the season, this contest would have won by 15+ points if either offense had just been able to perform at a league average level. Geno Smith followed up his mediocre but promising Week 1 performance with an all around stinker in net passing (-11.1) with poor normal pass plays (2.0) on top of 3 interceptions (-9.0). Then they added a bad turnover mark (-4.7) on a Stephen Hill fumble that was returned 44 yards. The Patriots mostly avoided negative plays, but their normal pass plays (-3.6) were the worst mark for New England in our data back to 2009, resulting in their worst net passing (-4.7) mark since their loss to the Ravens in the 2009 playoffs. The Patriots also ran (-6.4) very poorly. Finally, they lost signifcant points on final plays of each half (-6.0) partially by missing a short field goal at the end of the 1st half and partly as a by-product of finishing the game deep in Jets territory. The Pats pass offense should return to dominance once Gronkowski and Amendola return, but so far they have been lucky to rely on an easy early season schedule for wins.

(0-2) Browns 6 - 14 Ravens (1-1)
Offensive EPA: CLE (-14.0) - (-6.0) BAL
The Browns were below average in most categories, with the most important being net passing (-4.2) due to 5 sacks (-5.9) in addition to poor normal pass plays (1.7). The Ravens new look defense bounced back from a tough Week 1 like expected, showing that they can still be very good. Their net passing (5.8) was again decent but unspectacular. The offense was hurt by going 0/2 on field goals (-4.4) and a lost Ray Rice fumble (-3.2).

(0-2) Panthers 23 - 24 Bills (1-1)
Offensive EPA: CAR (4.8) - (5.8) BUF
The Panthers offense was rather average overall. They lost ground by giving up 6 sacks (-6.5), but made up for it with very good punting (3.7). The Bills were solid in net passing (5.8) and rushing (1.9). It was a solid improvement for E.J. Manuel and the Bills, who will need Manuel to keep it up in order to stay out of the bottom tier of the league.

(0-2) Redskins 20 - 38 Packers (1-1)
Offensive EPA: WAS (3.1) - (21.1) GB
While Robert Griffin does seem to have a slight limp on his injured knee and the Redskins have asked him to run less, Washington's difference in offensive effectiveness from last season is being overstated. They were again solid in net passing (9.5), but plagued by a missed field goal (-2.1) and poor punting (-1.9). But the Redskins biggest issue so far is just their poor defense and their schedule. The Packers were incredible in net passing (25.0) despite 4 sacks (-5.1), a performance that will likely stand among the best all season. Green Bay also ran the ball well (5.8) with James Starks after Eddie Lacy left with a concussion. Despite the tough Week 1 loss in San Francisco, the Packers show all the signs of a team that is as good as any in the NFC.

(1-1) Titans 24 - 30 Texans (2-0)
Offensive EPA: TEN (-6.3) - (-0.7) HOU
The Titans net passing (0.8) was mediocre despite mostly avoiding negative plays due to poor normal pass plays (2.6). Their rushing (-4.9) was again subpar. Tennessee punted well (3.7), but also lost points in several other categories. Despite barely missing a 2-0 start, the Titans stats are indicative of another disappointing season looking forward. The Texans pass offense is repeating its 2012 form of alternating great performances with terrible ones. They follow their strong Week 1 with a poor showing in net passing (-3.4) due to 2 interceptions (-9.9) including a pick-6. Houston managed to run (5.4) and punt (2.7) very well, but missed all 3 field goal attempts (-4.0).

(2-0) Dolphins 24 - 20 Colts (1-1)
Offensive EPA: MIA (10.7) - (5.1) IND
The Dolphins were very good on offense, with good net passing (7.6) despite 5 sacks (-6.3) including a fumble lost, and good rushing (4.4). Their solid normal pass plays (13.9) for the 2nd straight week were better than all but 2 marks from their 2012 season, providing some hope of Tannehill development and impact from the Mike Wallace addition. The pass offense will need to stay effective for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. The Colts were slightly above average in both net passing (5.2) and rushing (2.7), but it wasn't quite enough to offset their poor defense.

(1-1) Cowboys 16 - 17 Chiefs (2-0)
Offensive EPA: DAL (-2.2) - (-0.2) KC
The Cowboys were about average overall on offense. Their best success was avoiding interceptions and going 3/3 on field goals (3.4), while they struggled giving up 3 sacks (-5.8) including a lost fumble and also lost a Lance Dunbar fumble (-4.5). The Dallas pass offense has surprisingly struggled through 2 games, but there is no reason yet to think they won't regain their 2012 form. The Chiefs were close to league average in all categories on offense. While Kansas City is obviously much improved from a year ago, Alex Smith and the pass offense still haven't done enough to really expect a playoff appearance.

(1-1) Chargers 33 - 30 Eagles (1-1)
Offensive EPA: SD (19.6) - (16.6) PHI
This was a true offensive shootout. While poor defenses played a role, passing success in the NFL of this caliber is usually a stronger indication of great offense. The Chargers net passing (26.3) was so good it was the 3rd best performance from any team in the NFL from this or last season. San Diego was also very good on 4/4 of field goals (4.0), but lost significant points in our turnovers category (-6.7) from fumbles lost by Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews. The Chargers passing game appears to have regained their pre-2012 form. If it keeps up, they would likely be playoff bound. The Eagles were also very good in net passing (17.0), and rushed well too (4.7). It wasn't quite enough this game, but would be most games, and this was a promising loss for Philadelphia.

(1-1) Rams 24 - 31 Falcons (1-1)
Offensive EPA: STL (6.6) - (13.6) ATL
The Rams were good in total net passing (8.2) despite a huge 68 yard pick-6 (-9.1). The Falcons were very good in net passing (16.5) and also punted very well (5.5), offsetting small negatives in rushing (-2.8) and a few other categories. Because of the passing success, this was a promising performance for both teams.

(0-2) Vikings 30 - 31 Bears (2-0)
Offensive EPA: MIN (1.5) - (3.0) CHI
The Vikings were about neutral passing (1.1), with interceptions again being an issue due to a big pick-6 (-7.2). Minnesota punted well (3.8), but had a poor turnover mark (-3.5) from 2 lost fumbles. The Bears net passing (-0.4) was also about neutral, a result of good normal pass plays (16.0) but also 2 interceptions (-8.2) and a sack-fumble (-8.2) that was returned for a touchdown. Chicago ran well (4.2) and had success on kickoff returns (4.6), but also lost points on a Matt Forte fumble lost (-3.5).

(1-1) Lions 21 - 25 Cardinals (1-1)
Offensive EPA: DET (-5.0) - (-1.0) ARI
The Lions net passing (7.8) was relatively successful by avoiding negative plays. They also punted well (2.7), but lost significant points in several other areas including rushing (-2.3), a lost fumbled snap (-4.5), and missing both field goal attempts (-4.3). The Cardinals offense was pretty average overall. They gave up a costly pick-6 (-8.1) but also avoided significant sacks.

(2-0) Saints 16 - 14 Buccaneers (0-2)
Offensive EPA: NO (-5.3) - (-8.0) TB
The Saints were strong on normal pass plays (15.5) again, but 2 interceptions (-12.0) including a huge 85 yard pick-6 neutralized that success. New Orleans also struggled in rushing again (-3.7). The Bucs were poor on offense due to ineffective normal pass plays (0.7).

(2-0) Broncos 41 - 23 Giants (0-2)
Offensive EPA: DEN (11.0) - (-5.5) NYG
The Broncos were good on normal pass plays (14.3) and fortified the performance by avoiding any sacks or interceptions. It was more than enough to overcome a huge fumble lost (-5.0) by Montee Ball on 1st and goal that went for a touchback. Despite all the criticism, Eli Manning for the 2nd straight week produced an above average net passing (5.4) total. While his 4 interceptions (-10.5) were costly, their normal pass plays (17.1) were again very good and more than enough to offset the interceptions. The Giants real problems came in the run game (-3.9) and punting (-6.0), mostly due to a massive punt return touchdown by Trindon Holliday. Despite the 0-2 start, the Giants stats generally project well for the future. They have had success in the most consistent category while struggling in others that are not likely to keep up.

(0-2) Jaguars 9 - 19 Raiders (1-1)
Offensive EPA: JAC (-7.2) - (1.4) OAK
The Jaguars net passing (1.4) was actually only slightly below league average with Chad Henne at QB. Their biggest problems came in rushing (-3.4) and our last plays of the half category (-2.2), because they ran out of time at the end of the game with good field position. The Raiders were about average on offense overall, with success rushing (3.1) and punting (3.5) while being slightly below average in several other areas. While he still had some success on called runs, Terrelle Pryor was less effective. Though he avoided interceptions and their net passing (-0.2) was still not terrible, poor normal pass plays (3.5) are a bad sign going forward.

(1-1) 49ers 3 - 29 Seahawks (2-0)
Offensive EPA: SF (-28.5) - (-2.5) SEA
It only took 2 games in 2013 for Kaepernick to produce by far his best and worst games in his short career. The 49ers net passing (-18.4) was a terrible combination of 3 interceptions (-11.3), 3 sacks (-6.2) including a fumble lost, and very poor normal pass plays (-0.9). The Seattle defense is tough at home, but the net passing mark was worse than all but 4 from the entire 2012 NFL season. The Seahawks were near average all around on offense. We still see the NFC West as a coin toss between these 2 teams and don't necessarily assume that 1 of them will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

(0-2) Steelers 10 - 20 Bengals (1-1)
Offensive EPA: PIT (-4.3) - (5.3) CIN
Twice now the Steelers have combined poor net passing (1.1) and very bad rushing (-5.0) in a losing effort. Their playoff hopes are fading fast, but it wouldn't be too surprising if Pittsburgh turned things around for a mediocre season still. The Bengals were again solid in net passing (5.4), but this week did it by avoiding interceptions and sacks rather than having impressive normal pass plays.