Week 6 Rundown 2013

By Michael Gertz
Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Each week we rundown every game using our advanced play-by-play statistics to examine exactly how each game was won and what it means going forward. Our expected points added (EPA) analysis assigns a net point value gained or lost to every single play so we can see exactly on which types of plays teams excelled or failed, and ultimately where games were won. The EPA while each team was on offense gives a more representative measure of offensive efficiency than real life score by separating offensive success from advantages gained or lost by defensive stops, takeaways, and scores. View our complete stats for every play type each week on the Games page.

Week 6 didn't provide many surprises, and accordingly our ratings didn't have many major movements. A strong win for Seattle and an unimpressive showing in a loss for New Orleans has moved the Seahawks up to about level with the Saints in their odds of claiming the #1 seed in the NFC or making the Super Bowl. With even records now, Seattle still has a slightly lower rating, but has the advantage of home field when the two meet later in the season.

(0-5) Giants 21 - 27 Bears (3-2)
Offensive EPA: NYG (4.1) - (10.1) CHI
The Giants were slightly below average in net passing (1.2), with strong normal pass plays (16.8) but 3 costly interceptions (-14.5) including a touchdown. They were above average in total offense for the first time this season though thanks to good rushing (2.7) and avoiding some of the usual small negatives in lesser categories. Grouping this and last season, 4 of the Giants worst 6 marks in interceptions have already come in 2013. The Bears were good on normal pass plays (15.1) and added to it by completely avoiding interceptions and sacks, while their run game (-3.7) was a bit poor. Jay Cutler has finally taken a step forward this year with help from the addition of Martellus Bennett and development of Alshon Jeffrey, but the Bears defense has taken a bit of a step back.

(3-2) Packers 19 - 17 Ravens (3-3)
Offensive EPA: GB (-3.7) - (-5.7) BAL
The standard box score makes it look like Aaron Rodgers had a great game, but in terms of actual efficiency the Packers net passing (3.0) was only average because they had a couple of offensive penalties on pass plays while not forcing any penalties from the Ravens defense. The Packers run game (-1.5) also looked good in the box score but was mitigated by 2 holding penalties. Game circumstances lost the Packers several points in our final play of each half category (-4.4) because they ended both halves in the red zone but the clock limited their scoring. The Ravens net passing (4.7) was solid with good normal pass plays (14.2) and no interceptions, but they had 5 sacks (-9.5) including a lost fumble. Their run game was very poor (-6.1) yet again.

(4-2) Bengals 27 - 24 Bills (2-4)
Offensive EPA: CIN (9.6) - (8.0) BUF
The Bengals offense was very good thanks to their net passing (13.4). Surprisingly, the Bills also had success in net passing (6.0) under Thad Lewis. They also ran well (2.5) but ultimately fell just short of a win. The game was a positive sign that Buffalo may still be competitive without E.J. Manuel.

(4-2) Lions 31 - 17 Browns (3-3)
Offensive EPA: DET (15.9) - (2.4) CLE
The Lions were great in net passing (13.1) despite only having a hobbled Calvin Johnson as a limited decoy. The Browns were near average in most offensive categories. They ran well (3.4) thanks to a long WR rush.

(2-4) Raiders 7 - 24 Chiefs (6-0)
Offensive EPA: OAK (-20.6) - (-3.6) KC
Terrelle Pryor had his first terrible game as a pro, giving up 3 interceptions (-13.2) including a touchdown and an incredible 10 sacks (-9.8). Oakland was also below average in most other offensive categories. The Chiefs rushed well (2.4), but again were subpar in net passing (-2.9) due to poor normal pass plays (0.6). As good as the Chiefs defense has been, their level of success is still a bit flukey and Kansas City will have to pass the ball better to be a real contender in the playoffs.

(3-3) Rams 38 - 13 Texans (2-4)
Offensive EPA: STL (12.2) - (-12.8) HOU
The Rams passing didn't look great in the box score, but they forced several big penalties. They didn't pass much, but when they did they were good on normal pass plays (15.3) and didn't give up a single sack or interception. Fittingly, the Texans were actually passing the ball well before Matt Schaub was injured and T.J. Yates threw 2 interceptions (-11.3) including a 98 yard touchdown. Houston ran the ball very well (5.4), but was terrible on kickoff returns (-8.2) because they had a fumble returned for a touchdown. They also lost ground on a turnover (-5.3) from a DeAndre Hopkins fumble that was lost and returned 43 yards.

(1-4) Steelers 19 - 6 Jets (3-3)
Offensive EPA: PIT (3.4) - (-9.6) NYJ
The Steelers got back to running the ball very poorly (-5.7), but overcame it with good net passing (9.3). Their 1-4 record has been pretty flukey, and we maintain that they are still a decent team. Geno Smith seems to alternate good weeks with bad ones. This was a bad one, with poor normal pass plays (3.4) and 2 interceptions (-7.9) combining for very bad overall net passing (-7.7).

(3-3) Eagles 31 - 20 Buccaneers (0-5)
Offensive EPA: PHI (10.7) - (-0.3) TB
The Eagles net passing (16.3) was great under Nick Foles. Mike Glennon showed improvement as the Bucs net passing (7.5) was actually successful, but the run game struggled (-4.2).

(2-3) Panthers 35 - 10 Vikings (1-4)
Offensive EPA: CAR (20.0) - (-5.0) MIN
This was another fitting result, as the prisoner of the moment media had recently managed to praise Matt Cassel and criticize Cam Newton due to their most recent games while ignoring entire past seasons. The Panthers net passing (15.5) was great, and their rushing (3.0) was strong as well. The Vikings also ran well (1.7), but were poor in net passing (-2.7) due to 2 interceptions (-8.5). There is a small chance Josh Freeman could flourish with his new team, but most likely the Vikings will be in for more of the same subpar passing.

(0-6) Jaguars 19 - 35 Broncos (6-0)
Offensive EPA: JAC (-7.0) - (8.0) DEN
Interestingly, on normal pass plays, the box score shows almost identical numbers for Henne and Manning. However our stats, which account for penalties and the impact of what situations the yards came in, give a 7 point advantage to Manning in that category. Jacksonville was a little below average in most offensive categories. The Broncos net passing (9.7) was strong despite a big pick-6 (-6.9). Their rushing (9.2) was very good despite an unimpressive yardage total because they scored 3 touchdowns and also converted a fake punt. Denver was hindered by 2 fumbled snaps (-8.0) which were both lost. With Von Miller returning from suspension, the Broncos could get even better.

(3-3) Titans 13 - 20 Seahawks (5-1)
Offensive EPA: TEN (-9.4) - (-1.7) SEA
The Titans were a bit below average in most offensive categories. The Seahawks were very good in both net passing (11.3) and rushing (5.0). Seattle would have won this game handily if not for their mark in our final plays of each half category (-12.2). This was mostly due to a strange play that ended the 1st half. The Seahawks lined up for a field goal with their backup holder in, fumbled the snap, and it was returned 77 yards for a touchdown and a 10 point swing.

(5-1) Saints 27 - 30 Patriots (5-1)
Offensive EPA: NO (5.6) - (9.0) NE
The Saints were near average in net passing (4.3), with slightly subpar normal pass plays (7.9) but few negative plays. The normal pass plays were by far the worst this season for New Orleans. They were however relatively successful rushing (2.1) for the first time, and avoided some usual negatives in lesser categories. The Patriots were strong in net passing (6.9) and were generally positive in the lesser categories.

(3-3) Cardinals 20 - 32 49ers (4-2)
Offensive EPA: ARI (-9.3) - (2.7) SF
The high score in this game was inflated by turnovers rather than offensive efficiency. The Cardinals net passing (-4.2) was very poor yet again due to subpar normal pass plays (5.7) and 2 interceptions (-8.4). Arizona surprisingly hasn't had even an average net passing game since Week 1. They did rush well (5.8), but also lost numerous points on turnovers (-7.6) from 2 fumbles lost and a late failed 4th down attempt. The 49ers net passing (1.7) and rushing (-0.8) were both slightly below average, but San Francisco scored well on special teams categories while avoiding usual negatives in lesser categories.

(1-4) Redskins 16 - 31 Cowboys (3-3)
Offensive EPA: WAS (-9.6) - (5.4) DAL
The Redskins got their run game going (6.2) with an increase in read option plays and a quicker looking Robert Griffin, but their net passing (-4.6) has only gotten worse as the season has progressed. Washington lost significant ground in punting (-5.6) due to a return touchdown. The Cowboys were also disappointing through the air with slightly below average net passing (0.9) due to poor normal pass plays (4.9). Dallas gained a further special teams advantage through kickoff returns (1.7) and their punts (2.1) while avoiding common negatives in other areas.

(4-2) Colts 9 - 19 Chargers (3-3)
Offensive EPA: IND (-0.2) - (9.8) SD
The Colts normal pass plays (-1.6) looked decent in the standard box score but were terrible in actual effectiveness due to very poor 3rd down efficiency. Small positives in several other categories offset their poor overall net passing (-5.1), but not to the level of their competition. The Chargers offense wasn't great in any area but was solid all around. Their net passing (8.0) was good by reducing negative plays, and they got contributions from rushing (1.9), field goals (1.6), and punting (1.7).

Byes: Falcons (1-4), Dolphins (3-2)