Wk 17 Playoff Scenarios 2019

By Michael Gertz
Friday, December 27, 2019

The following are all possible playoff tiebreakers and seeding scenarios for the final week of the season, as well as our odds for each team finishing in each seed. For full standings, records in tiebreaking categories, and tiebreaker process, visit the Standings page.

AFC

Current Standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-2) -- vPIT
2. New England Patriots (12-3) -- vMIA
3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) -- vLAC
4. Houston Texans (10-5) -- vTEN
5. Buffalo Bills (10-5) -- vNYJ
6. Tennessee Titans (8-7) -- @HOU
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7) -- @BAL
8. Oakland Raiders (7-8) -- @DEN
9*. Indianapolis Colts (7-8) -- @JAC
*IND are eliminated as they lost head to head vs PIT & OAK, but they can still affect tiebreakers.

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-None

Scenarios:
-NE has won AFC East
-BAL has won AFC North
-HOU has won AFC South
-KC has won AFC West

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-BAL > NE on head to head
-KC > NE on head to head
-HOU > KC on head to head

Scenarios:
BAL:
-#1 seed
NE:
-#2 seed with win OR KC loss = 1 - (2.6% * 73.7%) = 98.1%
-#3 seed with loss + KC win = 2.6% * 73.7% = 1.9%
KC:
-#2 seed with win + NE loss = 73.7% * 2.6%= 1.9%
-#3 seed with loss + HOU loss OR win + NE win = 26.3% * 71.2 + 73.7% * 97.4% = 90.5%
-#4 seed with loss + HOU win = 26.3% * 28.8% = 7.6%
HOU:
-#3 seed with win + KC loss = 28.8% * 26.3% = 7.6%
-#4 seed with loss OR KC win = 1 - (28.8% * 26.3%) = 92.4%

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-TEN > PIT on strength of victory

-TEN > PIT & OAK on strength of victory
-PIT > IND & TEN with IND > TEN on division record, then PIT > IND on head to head

-OAK > PIT & IND & TEN with IND > TEN on division record, then PIT & OAK > IND on head to head sweep, then OAK > PIT on strength of victory, with 1 win by any of CHI/DET/LAC/NE
-PIT > OAK & IND & TEN with IND > TEN on division record, then PIT & OAK > IND on head to head sweep, then PIT > OAK on strength of schedule, with losses by all of CHI/DET/LAC/NE

Scenarios:
BUF:
-#5 seed
TEN:
-#6 seed with win OR loss + PIT loss + IND loss = 71.2% + 28.8% * 51.6% * 38.3% = 76.9%
-Eliminated with loss + (PIT win OR IND win) = 28.8% * (1 - 51.6% * 38.3%) = 23.1%
PIT:
-#6 seed with TEN loss + (win OR IND win + (OAK loss OR CHI loss + DET loss + LAC loss + NE loss)) = 18.9%
-Eliminated with TEN win OR (loss + (IND loss OR OAK win + (CHI win OR DET win OR LAC win OR NE win))) = 81.1%
OAK:
-#6 seed with win + PIT loss + TEN loss + IND win + (CHI win OR DET win OR LAC win OR NE win) = 45.7% * 51.6% * 28.8% * 61.7% * (1 - 36.5% * 81.5% * 73.7% * 2.6%) = 4.2%
-Eliminated with loss OR PIT win OR TEN win OR IND loss OR CHI loss + DET loss + LAC loss + NE loss = 95.8%

Potential for Resting Starters

-BAL has clinched #1 seed, and could rest starters vPIT
-HOU is locked into only possibly getting the #3 or #4 seed, and could rest starters vTEN
-HOU would lock into #4 seed with KC win in early game, and could rest starters vTEN
-BUF is locked into #5 seed, and could rest starters vNYJ

NFC

Current Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-3) -- @SEA
2. Green Bay Packers (12-3) -- @DET
3. New Orleans Saints (12-3) -- @CAR
4. Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) -- @NYG
5. Seattle Seahawks (11-4) -- vSF
6. Minnesota Vikings (10-5) -- vCHI
7. Dallas Cowboys (7-8) -- vWAS

Determining Division Winners

Possible Tiebreakers:
-DAL > PHI on division record
-SEA > SF on head to head

Scenarios:
-DAL wins NFC East with win + PHI loss = 92.8% * 45.7% = 42.4%
-PHI wins NFC East with win (or tie) OR DAL loss = 1 - (45.7% * 92.8%) = 57.6%
-GB has won NFC North
-NO has won NFC South
-SEA wins NFC West with win vSF = 52.8%
-SF wins NFC West with win @SEA (or tie) = 47.2%

Division Winners Seeding

Possible tiebreakers:
-SEA > GB on common games
-NO > SEA on head to head
-GB > NO on conference record
-SF > GB on head to head
-SF > NO on head to head

-SEA > GB > NO with SEA & GB > NO on conference record, then SEA > GB on common games, then GB > NO on conference record
-SF > GB > NO with SF > GB & NO on head to head sweep, then GB > NO on conference record

Scenarios:
SF:
-#1 seed with win OR tie + GB loss + NO loss = 47.2%
-#2 seed with tie + exactly 1 of GB/NO win
-#3 seed with tie + GB win + NO win
GB:
-#1 seed with win + SEA win = 81.5% * 52.8% = 43.0%
-#2 seed with win + SF win OR loss + NO loss = 81.5% * 47.2% + 18.5% * 24.1% = 42.9%
-#3 seed with loss + NO win = 18.5% * 75.9% = 14.0%
NO:
-#1 seed with win + SEA win + GB loss = 75.9% * 52.8% * 18.5% = 7.4%
-#2 seed with win + (SF win + GB loss OR SEA win + GB win) OR loss + SEA win + GB win = 75.9% * (47.2% * 18.5% + 52.8% * 81.5%) + 24.1% * 52.8% * 81.5% = 49.7%
-#3 seed with SF win + GB win OR loss + GB loss = 47.2% * 81.5% + 24.1% * 18.5% = 42.9%
PHI:
-#4 seed with win OR DAL loss = 1 - (45.7% * 92.8%) = 57.6%
SEA:
-#1 seed with win + GB loss + NO loss = 52.8% * 18.5% * 24.1% = 2.4%
-#2 seed with win + GB loss + NO win = 52.8% * 18.5% * 75.9% = 7.4%
-#3 seed with win + GB win = 52.8% * 81.5% = 43.0%
DAL:
-#4 seed with win + PHI loss = 92.8% * 45.7% = 42.4%

Wild Cards

Possible tiebreakers:
-SEA > MIN on head to head

Scenarios:
SEA:
-#5 seed with loss OR tie = 47.2%
SF:
-#5 seed with loss = 52.8%
MIN:
-#6 seed

Potential for Resting Starters

-MIN is locked into #6 seed, and could rest starters vCHI